Bitcoin’s Post-Halving Year Ends with a Loss: Is the Four-Year Cycle Over?
Estimated Reading Time: 3 minutes
Don’t invest unless you’re prepared to lose all the money you invest. This is a high-risk investment and you are unlikely to be protected if something goes wrong. Take 2 minutes to learn more
For the first time ever, Bitcoin’s post-halving year ended in a loss. This is breaking a trend that had lasted for over a decade. For consecutive periods Bitcoin has followed a predictable pattern after its halving events, leading to significant price gains.
Going through memory lane, the token after the halving events in 2013, 2017, and 2021 saw strong rallies. However, this pattern broke down in 2025, with Bitcoin ending December down by approximately 6% compared to its January starting price.
To this end, this marks the first time that Bitcoin has closed a post-halving year in the red.
Experts Question the Future of Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle
Many in the cryptocurrency community have begun to question whether the four-year cycle is still relevant. The reduced impact of halvings is one key explanation. As it stands, Bitcoin’s total supply approaches its 21 million cap; meanwhile, the reduction in new BTC issuance from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC in 2024 had a much smaller impact on supply than previous halvings. This smaller reduction in supply may have weakened the expectation of a big price surge after the halving.
In addition to the halving’s reduced effect, institutional involvement in Bitcoin has significantly changed market dynamics. The recent introduction of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the increasing institutional investment, such as Strategy, have broadened Bitcoin’s ownership base. However, this occurrence in the market has made the token more closely tied to traditional financial markets, reducing its ability to move independently while increasing its vulnerability to external factors.
Macroeconomic Factors Add to Bitcoin’s Struggles
Throughout 2025, interest rates and inflation were on the rise, and slow economic growth was also among the economic factors affecting assets like Bitcoin.
As it stands, some analysts are of the opinion that Bitcoin’s market cycles should be longer and more complex than the old four-year pattern. This is suggesting that the price movements should happen over extended periods rather than following a fixed schedule.
Put together, though 2025 stands out as an outlier in the history of the Bitcoin cycle, debate around the end of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is still inconclusive. To this end, the debate continues as Bitcoin matures and becomes more integrated into the global financial system.
In order to place winning trades with us via Bybit, you can open an account here.
