VanEck Sees a Bitcoin Supply Trend That Could Change Everything
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Key Takeaways:
- VanEck says Bitcoin’s long-term holder supply keeps reaching new highs.
- Tightening supply contrasts with weak short-term market sentiment.
- The setup could support stronger Bitcoin gains over time.
Quiet price action can look like nothing is happening. VanEck’s latest read on Bitcoin’s on-chain data suggests otherwise — the calm surface is hiding one of the more structurally significant supply shifts of the cycle.
CoinMarketCap reported on July 23, 2026 that VanEck says Bitcoin’s quiet summer masks a tightening supply picture, with tokens that have not moved in over a year reaching 12.20 million BTC, or 60.8% of circulating supply — the 68th percentile going back to 2012. Bitcoin trades at $64,992.68, up 2.9% over the past seven days, according to CoinGecko.
A Supply Base That Keeps Getting Tighter
This figure has climbed steadily, rising from 59.1% six months ago to 59.9% three months ago and now to 60.8%, growing at an average pace of roughly 0.4 percentage points per month. What makes the trend notable is that it’s happened despite falling prices rather than because of rising ones. The long-term holder share climbed through the price drop, not around it — a sign that holders sat still even as the market pulled back 33% from its six-month high.
VanEck’s report doesn’t expect the trend to reverse anytime soon. Sitting just behind the one-year threshold is another 3.55 million BTC, about 17.7% of supply, in the six-to-twelve-month aging band — a cohort in the 95th percentile by size since 2020.
If those coins stay unspent past the twelve-month mark, they graduate into the long-term bucket and push the share even higher. VanEck projects that long-term share reaching roughly 62% within three months and nearing 63% within six.
Bitcoin’s Range-Bound Week
Looking at the seven-day chart, Bitcoin climbed from a low near $63,000 on July 18 to a peak just above $67,000 on July 22, before pulling back through July 23 and stabilizing near $64,992 as of July 24. That choppiness sits squarely inside the pattern VanEck describes — a market moving sideways in price while the underlying holder base keeps quietly hardening.
Why Dormant Supply Tends to Matter Later
Historically, periods where the long-term holder share has exceeded 60% and continued rising have lined up with above-average Bitcoin returns across horizons ranging from 30 days to two years, suggesting the structural setup favors patient holders even if near-term price action stays cautious. That said, VanEck isn’t calling this a clean bottom signal.
The report flags cold profitability metrics, with net unrealized profit sitting at just the 17th percentile and only 53% of supply currently in profit against a four-year average closer to 76%. Miner economics are also near multi-year lows, and derivatives markets are flashing fear rather than confidence.
That combination — tightening long-term supply paired with weak short-term sentiment — is exactly the kind of divergence that tends to go unnoticed until price eventually catches up to it, one way or the other.
