Bitcoin Market Analysis: Mixed Signals as Price Consolidates Near $118,000

Bitcoin continues trading in a tight range around $118,000 following its recent all-time high above $123,000 ten days ago.

The cryptocurrency faces conflicting market dynamics as analysts debate whether the current consolidation signals a healthy pause before further gains or marks the beginning of a broader distribution phase.

Supply Activity Points to Early Cycle Phase

On-chain metrics reveal compelling insights about Bitcoin’s current market structure. The percentage of supply active over the past 180 days—a key indicator that historically surges during major market turning points—shows only modest increases compared to previous cycle peaks.

During spring 2024, when Bitcoin approached $70,000, this metric climbed to 20%. It rose again to 18% in December 2024 as Bitcoin first broke through the $100,000 psychological barrier.

Currently, the metric sits at just 2.4%, suggesting long-term holders remain reluctant to sell despite Bitcoin trading near record levels.

The share of coins active over the last 180 days (% Supply Active) sharply increased twice in past macro cycles: first to 20 % when BTC climbed to $70,000 in spring 2024, and then in December 2024 to 18 % upon the first breach of the psychological $100,000 mark. This… pic.twitter.com/krgvTcoxvL

— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) July 23, 2025

Glassnode lead analyst James Check notes that volume remains insufficient to support a sustained push toward $200,000 by year-end. “How on earth can we be going up when there is no volume?” Check questioned in a recent interview.

He considers Bitcoin reaching $200,000 within six months “very improbable,” though he expects the cryptocurrency to surpass this level within five years.

Market Outlook Remains Divided

While some analysts predict BTC reaching $200,000 by year-end, others urge caution. Matt Hougan from Bitwise expects this target due to institutional demand through spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Anonymous analyst apsk32 points to long-term trend patterns supporting similar projections.

However, Rekt Capital warns that Bitcoin may only have months of price expansion remaining in the current cycle, particularly if following historical patterns from 2020.

The current supply activity data suggests Bitcoin holders remain committed despite prices near all-time highs.

This behavior, combined with corporate accumulation trends and relatively low distribution signals, indicates the market may still have room for further upside if new capital enters and accumulation resumes.

Bitcoin’s next major move likely depends on whether buying volume increases sufficiently to break through current resistance levels and establish new support above $120,000.

Corporate Bitcoin Accumulation Accelerates

In related news, MARA Holdings, the largest Bitcoin miner by holdings, announced plans to raise $850 million through zero-coupon convertible senior notes due 2032. The proceeds will partially fund additional Bitcoin purchases and debt restructuring.

MARA Holdings, Inc. Announces Proposed Private Offering of $850 Million of Zero Coupon Convertible Senior Noteshttps://t.co/vsJOqj2Svj

— MARA (@MARA) July 23, 2025

Initial purchasers receive a 13-day option to buy an additional $150 million of notes, potentially bringing the total raise to $1 billion.

This move deepens MARA’s treasury strategy beyond traditional mining operations. Last week, the company led a $20 million equity round in SEC-registered lender Two Prime, increasing its Bitcoin allocation to the firm’s yield strategies from 500 to 2,000 BTC.

The financing occurs amid intensifying competition among corporations using capital markets for crypto acquisition.

MicroStrategy this week rolled out its fourth preferred stock series, aiming to raise $500 million for additional Bitcoin purchases. The company currently holds 607,770 BTC—the largest corporate Bitcoin stack.

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