January CPI Inflation Cools to 2.4% as Core CPI Holds at 2.5%
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The latest January CPI inflation report released on February 13 by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics delivered cautious optimism to households and investors. Officials reported that headline inflation rose 0.2% in January and 2.4% compared with a year earlier, coming in below analyst projections.
Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% for the month and stood at 2.5% annually. While this figure matched forecasts, it remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% objective.
As it stands, economists noted that the 2.4% annual rate represents the lowest level since May 2025. They explained that declining energy costs and favorable comparison effects from last year helped push inflation lower. Energy prices fell 1.5% during the month, largely because gasoline prices dropped 3.2%.
January CPI Inflation Shows Cooling Trend, but Core CPI Remains Elevated
Although January CPI inflation slowed, certain categories continued to exert pressure. Shelter costs rose 0.2% in January and were up 3.0% from a year earlier. Food prices also increased 0.2% month over month and 2.9% annually. Services such as medical care and recreation recorded additional gains, keeping core inflation firm.
At the moment, market reaction is reflecting relief rather than excitement. As a result, the stock futures initially declined before moving higher, signaling measured confidence. Also, major equity indexes traded unevenly, while the cryptocurrency market showed mixed results among leading digital assets. Meanwhile, gold prices climbed 1.6% to $4,998.61 per ounce, and silver also advanced, indicating that investors continued seeking safe-haven assets.
The report followed months in which inflation remained above target throughout 2025. It was also released after a short delay caused by a partial government shutdown. Officials stated that updated seasonal adjustments and prior-year revisions were included, but they emphasized that no significant trend changes emerged.
BREAKING:
🇺🇸 US CPI Data: 2.4%
Expectations: 2.5%.
It came lower than expected which shows inflation is cooling. pic.twitter.com/ECO9BGrybs
— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) February 13, 2026
Post from @BullTheoryio stating the actual and expected CPI
Federal Reserve Policy Outlook and Consumer Impact
According to market data from the CME Group FedWatch tool, traders currently assign a 90.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain its benchmark rate at the upcoming meeting.
Meanwhile, the policymakers suggest patience needs to be applied, noting that a careful look into potential development is needed.
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