Bitcoin ETF: SEC to Approve in 2024, Say Bloomberg Analysts
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Bloomberg analysts predict approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the SEC in early 2024, fueled by recent amendments to applications by ARK Invest and 21Shares. These changes, the analysts suggest, indicate a strong likelihood of approval.
In contrast to Bitcoin futures ETFs, a spot Bitcoin ETF enables investors to directly buy and sell Bitcoin through a regulated fund. Such an offering is viewed as a more attractive and efficient option for investors seeking exposure to cryptocurrency.
James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas of Bloomberg ETF analysis noted the inclusion of more comprehensive context and risk disclosures in the prospectuses of ARK Invest and 21Shares. This, they believe, signifies close collaboration between these firms and the SEC as they finalize the fund’s details.
I've gotten a lot of questions regarding my current view on Spot #Bitcoin ETFs over the last couple weeks. This is the first section of the note I put out yesterday with @EricBalchunas.
TLDR: Our view hasn't changed much https://t.co/dRAm5IsdQf pic.twitter.com/Htsi3n2XxV
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) October 13, 2023
Invesco Galaxy has also updated its spot Bitcoin ETF application in a similar fashion, with other applicants likely to follow suit shortly.
Invesco Galaxy has now updated their spot bitcoin ETF S-1, following ARK in responding to SEC comments. Expecting the rest to add their updates soon as well. pic.twitter.com/JxzVMwLd4D
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) October 13, 2023
90–95% Possibility of Bitcoin ETF Approval
The Bloomberg analysts are optimistic about the chances of approval, giving ARK Invest’s application a 90% likelihood by the January 10 deadline, when the SEC is expected to make its final decision. Their confidence grows, foreseeing a 95% approval rate by the end of next year if no fund secures approval before then.
A crucial factor buoying this optimism is the SEC’s decision not to appeal a court ruling favoring Grayscale, the world’s largest Bitcoin fund manager. The court mandated that the SEC reconsider Grayscale’s application to transform its GBTC fund into a spot Bitcoin ETF, a proposal previously rejected by the SEC. Dialogue between Grayscale and the SEC is set to commence shortly.
This development showcases a more flexible stance from the regulatory body and suggests a growing openness to embracing Bitcoin-related financial products. With institutional interest in cryptocurrency continuing to surge, the imminent approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF is eagerly anticipated by investors and industry stakeholders.
